In follow up to our August post on consumer delinquency rates TransUnion reported this week that Q3 2015 national delinquency rates (90+ days past due) came in at 2.60%, continuing to hover in that narrow range we’ve seen over the last year of 2.58% to 2.66%.
What we find odd, albeit seductively interesting at the same time, is that while the AB provincial unemployment rate has moved up from 4.4% to 6.5% (meaning the ranks of the unemployed has increased by 47.72% of itself) over the last year Trans Union also reported that average consumer non-mortgage debt levels in Calgary and Edmonton have actually decreased at the same time year over year by -2.16% and -1.67% respectively! How can this be explained?
At this point we are left to surmise that either all of the reports over the last number of months referring to corporate downsizings, job losses, slowdowns in construction, real estate and the oil patch have been grossly exaggerated or, Albertans in general have stuffed far more money under their mattresses during the boom than was the case in the early eighties the last time the “bloom came off the (wild)rose.”
As a collection agency with offices in Edmonton, Calgary and the GTA we are watching with keen interest the unfolding of events with respect to these phenomenon and their impact (or lack thereof) on Canadian credit markets.
Is it really going to be different this time? Stay tuned.